[Script Info]
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[Events]
Format: Layer, Start, End, Style, Name, MarginL, MarginR, MarginV, Effect, Text
Dialogue: 0,0:00:00.50,0:00:02.51,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,CATHY LEWIS: How do you answer skeptics?
Dialogue: 0,0:00:02.51,0:00:04.11,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Because I'm sure that they still come to you
Dialogue: 0,0:00:04.11,0:00:06.32,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and say "I'm sorry, I [inaudible] it."
Dialogue: 0,0:00:06.32,0:00:07.52,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,How do you answer that?
Dialogue: 0,0:00:07.52,0:00:10.42,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,ADM. DAVID TITLEY: I mean, what I do is
Dialogue: 0,0:00:10.42,0:00:14.07,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I kind of go through in a, thank God, more abbreviated version
Dialogue: 0,0:00:14.07,0:00:16.78,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,than what I did this evening,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:16.78,0:00:19.04,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but basically just try to walk through the physics
Dialogue: 0,0:00:19.04,0:00:22.78,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,because-- at a very basic, conceptual level,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:22.78,0:00:25.57,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,no equations, no nothing like that.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:25.57,0:00:28.53,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Because we know the climate's changing.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:28.53,0:00:31.03,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I mean, there's just too much data for us.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:31.03,0:00:34.83,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And again, I kind of go back to my time on that ship that I showed you,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:34.83,0:00:36.13,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,USS Farragut.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:36.13,0:00:38.32,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I was privileged to be the navigator,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:38.32,0:00:39.74,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,which is a really, really cool job,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:39.74,0:00:41.54,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,because you're the only junior officer that can
Dialogue: 0,0:00:41.54,0:00:42.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,tell the captain where to go.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:42.99,0:00:44.82,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So that's actually kind of fun.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:44.82,0:00:48.03,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But one of the things you learn as a navigator--
Dialogue: 0,0:00:48.03,0:00:48.95,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,if you don't learn it,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:48.95,0:00:51.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,you're probably not going to be one very long--
Dialogue: 0,0:00:51.20,0:00:55.92,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is you never trust any one individual data point.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:55.92,0:00:58.63,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So, you know, I kind of look at climate change like that.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:58.63,0:01:00.47,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,If it was just the Arctic,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:00.47,0:01:03.16,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but all the glaciers were like, you know, being the same
Dialogue: 0,0:01:03.16,0:01:05.86,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,or coming down, and there were no temperature changes,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:05.86,0:01:10.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,there was no acidification change in the ocean, well, OK,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:10.50,0:01:12.03,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,we've probably got to look at something else.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:12.03,0:01:14.19,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But when you look at all the data,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:14.19,0:01:16.31,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,it all lines up with a consistent picture.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:16.31,0:01:17.68,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,You can actually model it,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:17.68,0:01:19.82,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,you take out the carbon dioxide, you don't get the right answer;
Dialogue: 0,0:01:19.82,0:01:23.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,you put in the CO2, you get the right answer.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:23.70,0:01:25.68,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So you can kind of go through that
Dialogue: 0,0:01:25.68,0:01:27.82,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and I just gave one example of,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:27.82,0:01:30.08,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,you know, when skeptics have a question about,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:30.08,0:01:31.17,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,what's a trace gas.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:31.17,0:01:32.76,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And I hear that all the time.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:32.76,0:01:34.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Well, hey, alcohol's a trace,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:34.50,0:01:36.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but we sure hear about that.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:36.10,0:01:38.09,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So just because it's a trace,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:38.09,0:01:39.16,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,it's interesting,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:39.16,0:01:42.79,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but it doesn't mean that it cannot be effective.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:42.79,0:01:45.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So what I've found is
Dialogue: 0,0:01:45.30,0:01:49.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that people who really, really, really believe it's all a vast conspiracy theory,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:49.90,0:01:51.61,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,there's not much you can say.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:51.61,0:01:52.58,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But I would say--
Dialogue: 0,0:01:52.58,0:01:56.43,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and again, could I just get a show of hands of whose been in the military?
Dialogue: 0,0:01:56.43,0:01:57.86,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,OK, so a bunch.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:57.86,0:02:01.26,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So you guys and gals will probably sort of understand this.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:01.26,0:02:02.85,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,You know in the military we have some
Dialogue: 0,0:02:02.85,0:02:05.92,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,very, very, very sensitive programs
Dialogue: 0,0:02:05.92,0:02:08.19,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and you read people in,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:08.19,0:02:11.45,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,make them take polygraphs half the time,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:11.45,0:02:15.58,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,you are told to never, ever, ever talk about them.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:15.58,0:02:17.51,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,If you do, we will humiliate you,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:17.51,0:02:18.68,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,we will take you to jail,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:18.68,0:02:20.67,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,we will take away your job.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:20.67,0:02:24.12,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Even then, it's pretty hard to keep a secret. Right?
Dialogue: 0,0:02:24.12,0:02:26.02,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It's pretty hard to keep a secret.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:26.02,0:02:27.51,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So what I sometimes want to know,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:27.51,0:02:29.18,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,when I hear these conspiracy theories
Dialogue: 0,0:02:29.18,0:02:33.44,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is how do you get about 3,000 academics across the world
Dialogue: 0,0:02:33.44,0:02:34.75,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,who like to talk,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:34.75,0:02:36.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,who (oh, by the way) if they could really disprove this,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:36.60,0:02:39.66,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,there's probably a Nobel Prize in it for somebody.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:39.66,0:02:40.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,You know, how--how--
Dialogue: 0,0:02:40.50,0:02:42.69,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,do they all like sign an oath or something
Dialogue: 0,0:02:42.69,0:02:43.100,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that they were all going to say this?
Dialogue: 0,0:02:43.100,0:02:45.75,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I mean, we've got a hard time in the Navy
Dialogue: 0,0:02:45.75,0:02:48.44,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to try and keep some.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:48.44,0:02:49.51,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It's a challenge.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:49.51,0:02:52.18,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So are you telling me a bunch of academics
Dialogue: 0,0:02:52.18,0:02:54.22,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,who like to talk are going to...you know...
Dialogue: 0,0:02:54.22,0:02:55.94,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,it just doesn't pass the sense.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:55.94,0:02:59.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,You know, there are some people you just aren't going to convince.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:59.10,0:03:02.75,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But then, you know, that's OK.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:02.75,0:03:04.14,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,LEWIS: So I guess the issue would be then,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:04.14,0:03:05.98,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and I think you were talking about this a little earlier,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:05.98,0:03:08.69,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,there will be a percentage of people who will believe you no matter what,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:08.69,0:03:11.100,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,a percentage of people who will disbelieve you no matter what,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:11.100,0:03:15.11,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,so the battle is for what's in the middle.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:15.11,0:03:16.71,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,ADM. TITLEY: [inaudible] of the New York Times
Dialogue: 0,0:03:16.71,0:03:19.28,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,really writes about this, the so-called six people.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:19.28,0:03:21.38,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And yeah, people on either end are there,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:21.38,0:03:24.13,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and the people in the middle slosh around,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:24.13,0:03:26.77,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and they'll, you know, I really think,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:26.77,0:03:29.45,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I'm pretty optimistic, people listen to reason.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:29.45,0:03:31.25,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,If you can make a well-reasoned case,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:31.25,0:03:34.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,you know, giving somebody just a spreadsheet or whatever
Dialogue: 0,0:03:34.90,0:03:36.74,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,or one picture of a [inaudible]
Dialogue: 0,0:03:36.74,0:03:38.51,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,probably doesn't do much, but
Dialogue: 0,0:03:38.51,0:03:40.08,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,you know, it's sort of building the first principles.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:40.08,0:03:43.76,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I think, you look at all the data.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:43.76,0:03:46.93,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,As I said, I didn't start off really believing much of this.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:46.93,0:03:47.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but as you look at it,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:47.80,0:03:50.16,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I mean, you've got to kind of come to a conclusion.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:50.16,0:03:51.52,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So it's what Churchill said,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:51.52,0:03:52.68,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,can you, when you see the truth,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:52.68,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,can you, can you kind of change your own--