-
RYAN: Well, thank you, Dr. Rood.
This is a-
-
there's a lot going on
in agriculture, as we all know, that's-
-
you know, we could
spend quite a bit of time,
-
so with just our limited amount of time,
Dr. Ward and I decided to
-
try and- try and take some- some
information that we can gather,
-
and how does that translate
to the producer level,
-
and what- what tools can we provide
-
Extension faculty with, producers with,
that they may be able to start analyzing
-
some of these dramatic impacts
that are- events that are happening
-
within agriculture right now.
-
So I'm going to start off with- with just
sharing some- just some simple statistics,
-
some places that I look for information,
some of the things that I watch.
-
When we look at- at-
-
at inflation, right,
any time we turn on the news,
-
any time we look at anything on the-
on the- on the Web right now,
-
I mean, inflation is- is a big thing.
-
President Biden was at a-
was at a farm yesterday in Illinois
-
talking about inflation.
-
And this is a big deal
for agriculture right now.
-
CPI, which is a basket
consumer price index,
-
basket of goods that a consumer would buy,
-
right, we use that as a-
a relative term of inflation.
-
And so you can see, right,
-
that past 2016, the 2020s,
that dark red line,
-
2022 is that blue line, that-
that darker blue line at top.
-
So we are- we're in a level of inflation
we haven't seen for- for-
-
for many of our, you know,
-
for- for many years,
30, 40 years for a lot of us.
-
And so this is- this is really
impacting a lot of decisions
-
that- that are being made right now.
-
So this- this- this data comes from
Livestock Marketing Information Center,
-
LMIC.
-
So for Extension fact, the LMIC is a
great repository for all kinds of data.
-
This is one that I use all the time,
Dr. Feuz uses all the time,
-
to- to gather data for- for a lot.
-
So this is a great,
great resource that we use.
-
But you can see here that inflation is-
is dramatically impacting,
-
at- at the consumer level
and, as we'll show also,
-
at the- at the producer level.
-
This is- so let's look at this
both from a global perspective
-
and from a- from a domestic
U.S.-based perspective.
-
You can see here,
natural gas, ammonia ba- main-
-
right, these are being used for
-
producing fertilizer,
fuel, whatnot, right?
-
So you can see East Asia, Western Europe,
we- we are complaining a lot
-
about the cost of natural gas,
but you can see those impacts
-
that are being felt in- across-
across the globe, right?
-
East Asia, Western Europe,
really seeing that.
-
Now on the ammonia side, right?
-
We've- we've seen just a bigger
run up on the ammonia side as-
-
as we have as other places in the world.
-
So this is what- a lot of the
key drivers of fertilizer prices.
-
In the spring, we talked a lot about this
in our crop schools, fertilizer prices and-
-
and with what was going on, that's
still going on in Ukraine and Russia,
-
so dramatically impacting the bottom line
for a lot of our crop producers.
-
This graph,
-
I found extremely interesting.
-
This comes from Farmdoc Daily
out of University of Illinois,
-
another great resource,
I would bookmark their- their website,
-
Farmdoc Daily, always providing
interesting graphs and information.
-
So this is- this is fertilizer,
the amount imported
-
and produced domestically,
so you can see nitrogen,
-
12% of our U.S. nitrogen is imported.
-
You can see, you know,
where the majority of that comes from.
-
Phosphate 9%, potash,
-
we're heavily reliant on
foreign producers for potash,
-
as you can see, right, the-
Belarus, Russia, then- then Canada.
-
So you can see that.
-
They compared that to Brazil,
interestingly enough, right?
-
We compete with Brazil on a lot of sides
when it comes to agriculture.
-
They're more heavily dependent
on some of these other, right,
-
95% imported for nitrogen
where we're 12%, phosphate 75%,
-
potash, much like us, they're 91%.
-
So, dramatic-
-
This is what's driving that-
-
that potash price and nitrogen
because of those
-
other foreign factors driving that,
but not quite as bad as Brazil.
-
But still, those fertilizer prices are-
-
and energy prices are really
changing our bottom line.
-
So this is- this comes out of-
-
this is USDA NASS data.
-
So you can see here, this is paid indexes,
-
so almost like a producer price index
-
for chemical fertilizer
and fuels at the farm level.
-
So you can see-
-
right?
-
So- so chemicals remain pretty steady
and have risen as of late.
-
Fertilizer,
-
2013- we had high fertilizer prices
in 2008, 2009, 2007,
-
and then it's dropped.
-
We had a period of relatively low
fertilizer prices and have seen that,
-
and you can see how that
tracks those fuel prices.
-
You know, energy,
those two are tied together.
-
And so you can see those fuel prices
and- and fertilizer prices as of late.
-
When we look at this,
historically speaking, this graph here,
-
we- there's a time when
-
we didn't know if we'd see
those prices, those global
-
for April 2012, October 2008,
where the previous h-
-
two previous highs,
and you can see April 2022,
-
we were well above those-
those two previous highs.
-
So this- this is a
period of- of input prices
-
we haven't seen or experienced
-
really impacting bottom line.
-
But I'll show you
what's offsetting some of that.
-
So when we think about Utah,
I just want to quickly show you just a-
-
just a snapshot of- this is-
the blue line would be last year,
-
and the orange is,
as of this year, average prices.
-
So you can see, right, California,
-
almost $70 above where we were last year,
-
Idaho, $50.
-
So, you know, you look across
these western states where
-
$50 to $70 above where
we were a year ago on sale price.
-
And I've read, you know,
just some anecdotal conversations,
-
you know, with- with prices
above 300, with take to-
-
take into consideration this is average
across different quality levels.
-
So when I say 270, that's averaged across
these different quality levels, but..
-
These hay prices are, you know,
when we think about the revenue,
-
and Ru's going to show the
revenue and the cost side.
-
So keep that in mind as we're
talking about, you know,
-
capturing some of the sensitivity of-
of bottom line to some of these-
-
these factors.
-
For our livestock producers,
-
we're watching the price of corn,
-
and, you know,
thinking about the cost of feed
-
as it's tied to alfalfa as well.
-
Corn is into an area that- that
we didn't know if we would ever see again.
-
So this is just the- the-
the cash price for corn.
-
When we look at this on a futures basis,
so this is the future.
-
This is July 2022 futures.
-
When we look at the previous July
contracts, the previous high was right at,
-
you know, that 2012 when that drought
came through, and we're above that.
-
So we're seeing, once again,
we're seeing prices on the-
-
on some of these commodities
that we have not seen before.
-
Soy- winter wheat,
same story in winter wheat,
-
seeing prices we haven't
seen before in winter wheat.
-
The previous was in 2007, 2008,
we saw high prices.
-
We're above those right now,
-
so, you know, a lot of these
commodities are driving-
-
are going to maintain some profitability
on the- on the crop side,
-
offsetting some of those costs,
-
but soybeans- I just
want to show that just as,
-
right, we're seeing these high prices.
-
Then we talk about cattle.
-
Unfortunately, when we look at cattle-
-
so this is our futures for feeder
and futures for live cattle.
-
When we- earlier in the year,
they've been, you know,
-
rising in-
-
the price had been rising
as we saw that trend.
-
And then as of late
with economic concerns,
-
you know, a lot of these
different factors, you know,
-
margins at the packer level,
-
whatever, we've seen that price
steadily decline.
-
On the live cattle,
we've seen it on the live as well.
-
So unlike the commodity side,
on the livestock side, we have these-
-
these prices that are-
-
are dampening the-
-
the profitability projections
as we go forward.
-
Talking energy,
-
so this is our- our
August futures for crude..
-
oil, just wanted to
show that in perspective.
-
So this is- we're at 1- we're at 107.
-
Just very recently.
When we put that into perspective,
-
the past 20 years, that's-
-
right?
-
We saw higher in 2008,
you know, we had at this period, 2000.
-
So oil is- is- is high,
-
but we- you know, it's not an area
that we haven't seen before
-
and like we're seeing
with some of these other commodities.
-
We're still going to drive
that cost of fuel though, natural gas.
-
Right? We're seeing this natural gas,
-
but when we put this into historical
perspective, this is a one year chart.
-
This is a 20 year chart, right?
-
Once again, we saw those
high prices, 2006, 2008.
-
And so natural gas is high,
but we were at a period
-
of really low prices that kind of skewed
some of our perspective.
-
But that's still going to drive up
these input costs,
-
and we're going to show you how you can
-
implement some of those
-
as we put this into perspective, so...
-
MODERATOR: Ryan,
as you're transitioning to Ruby here,
-
what- so this conflict
in Ukraine- and Ukraine,
-
I've heard referred to sort of
as the breadbasket of Europe, is-
-
what do we think that's- what impact
do you think that's going to have?
-
Are we seeing that already in the futures?
-
And what impact
do you think that's going to have on
-
some of these commodity prices,
like particularly wheat?
-
>> Yeah, wheat- wheat is really the
one market that's being impacted
-
by- by Ukraine.
-
There's still a lot of uncertainty
whether, you know,
-
you see- you see pictures of farmers out
trying to plant in Ukraine right now,
-
and there's a lot of uncertainty
whether they will plant,
-
how much will get planted,
-
so I think this wheat market is going
to be extremely volatile this year
-
and at least next year,
depending on what happens there.
-
But that's- and that's-
that's really going to impact that.
-
Some of the- the consequences of that
-
is we're seeing a lot of people,
a lot of farmers
-
in the West and Midwest
that are planting more wheat this year,
-
which we haven't done in a long time.
-
So that could impact the corn markets.
-
That's going to impact
a lot of other markets.
-
And so I think this- this Ukraine issue
-
is sending ripples across
all commodity markets right now.
-
[all three speakers speak at once]
-
RYAN: Yes. There we go.
-
RUBY: Alright. So the first-
-
so we wanted to kind of-
and Ryan and I are going to
-
kind of go back and forth here,
but we wanted to really
-
kind of show you how you aren't-
-
don't have to just be reliant
on kind of our examples,
-
but how you can kind of
go about really saying,
-
what does this mean
down at the producer level?
-
And so that's what we wanted to go with.
-
So the first thing that we do
is we pull up a budget,
-
and if you're working with a producer
that has their information from last year,
-
they can use their own information,
but this is..
-
an alfalfa budget
-
that Ryan put together,
and it's based on a hundred acres.
-
And so budgets
have the receipts here up at the top.
-
And this one is based upon about five-
-
well, it is five tons of alfalfa per acre,
-
and the price varied between 200 and 255,
-
and it's around an average
around $225 a ton.
-
And then we've got the costs down here.
-
The variable costs are fertilizer,
herbicide, insecticide,
-
the labor, fuel, repairs, other things.
-
And then we have the fixed
costs down here.
-
And so in this case,
Ryan's budget was showing
-
that we're making 4100- $41,000
after our costs on this enterprise budget.
-
And this is an enterprise budget
-
because it's for one enterprise,
and in this case it's for alfalfa.
-
So in order to really kind of
look at changes and things,
-
what I like to do is really kind of
bring it back down to just a few costs
-
rather than all of the various details
that is in this budget.
-
So I want to take the budget and
kind of simplify it a little bit. And..
-
my goal is, I have
-
these templates that I put together
just a generic one
-
on sensitivity analysis,
and sensitivity analysis is just saying
-
what happens to percentage
changes to our bottom line.
-
And so you can- the green column,
-
you have your own information
or the beginning bas- net situation.
-
In this case we've got 36% margins.
-
So for every dollar you sell,
-
36% of it is left over after you
cover your out-of-pocket expenses,
-
then you've got your overhead, your taxes.
-
And this one was for a little
raspberry jam out of-
-
you're making it out of your home.
-
And then the blue,
you can put in percentage changes.
-
So I've got to find
basically these numbers in green
-
from that enterprise budget,
-
and then if I put those in,
then I can start to do the analysis.
-
So that's just kind of
setting the stage for this.
-
So over here, energy is
a big cost, as Ryan said,
-
that's been affected different things.
-
And so I just go through
and I kind of look at what things
-
my- do I think are moving
with those energy markets.
-
Fertilizer obviously is dependent upon
what's going on now.
-
The- and so I just take a color coding,
-
and because I think for me color coding
something really kind of lets me
-
just kind of see what's going on
and know that I looked at everything.
-
So over here..
-
I'm just making energy green,
and then I can sum up,
-
and then down here,
-
we'd also make fuel
would be that same way.
-
And so I can make it green,
-
and I'm going to do that
with the other things,
-
and I've actually already done that.
-
But I didn't want to start
with my cluttered Excel file.
-
So here's how I start to kind of take
that budget and start to pick it apart.
-
But basically, I want to assign
all of these costs up to one of these
-
and then add them up.
-
And so if I go..
-
so this version..
-
make it a little bit bigger
so we can see it.
-
There we go.
-
So I've got this in our- the budget,
-
and you can see that I have-
now going down through these costs,
-
all of them are assigned to one of these,
and then I've added them up.
-
And so..
-
water cost I put into other,
-
the irrigation labor, operator labor,
and also repairs and maintenance, right,
-
and I talked about this a little bit,
-
and we felt like repairs and
maintenance is coming from the parts,
-
but also the labor based upon that.
-
So the cost of getting repairs done,
we felt like it was moving in some ways
-
with the labor market.
-
So we decided for this scenario,
-
and for this instance
to really kind of look at
-
how to kind of pull these things together,
-
to put the repairs and
maintenance in with the labor.
-
And then the purplish color,
-
pink color is all the other expenses,
and then the fixed cost,
-
we lumped those together
into our fixed cost.
-
And so when I did that, we ended up with
-
energy is making up 23% of our revenue.
-
Labor was 16%.
-
Other expenses that we
lumped all together were 3%,
-
and then our fixed costs were 21%,
leaving our profit down here at 37%.
-
So this is what Ryan had put together
as a budget kind of before
-
some of these really big changes that
have been happening- going on in 2022.
-
So now that we have those,
-
I can- and just to make it easy
to see in this presentation
-
and not kind of be going back and forth,
-
what I did was just pull that sensitivity
file over here into this spreadsheet.
-
As you can see that here,
-
I modified these numbers in green
-
to match what I was pulling in here.
-
So my revenue 111,000.
-
And if I go back over here to my budget,
let's just pull that back on the screen-
-
[mumbles] no, it won't let me do that.
Okay.
-
So my revenue was 111,000,
that's what I put in here,
-
my energy, it all added up to 23,329.
-
And then my labor,
-
I put that in other,
this one's left blank,
-
so if I wanted to split it out
into one more area, I could.
-
And then I've got my overhead
or my fixed cost.
-
And so everything's kind of put in here.
-
So this is the way things are looking now.
-
Here's my net income before taxes.
-
If I assume like a 35% tax rate,
-
then that's going to be
around $27,000 after taxes.
-
But what we really want to know
-
is not just what we were projecting,
but what- play the what if games.
-
And so here,
-
so over here in this blue column,
I can just change-
-
I can change whatever we want.
-
And so before I- without anything, it's
just going to look like it looked before.
-
But as we start to go in and
add in different things,
-
and so, Ryan,
-
you can start to chime in here
if you would like.
-
But- so based upon those graphs
that Ryan was showing earlier,
-
energy's obviously,
and our fertilizer costs have gone up.
-
So what percentage
do you think we ought to put in there
-
for a change in fertilizer?
-
RYAN: At least 30 to 40%.
I think that's very conservative.
-
>> Okay.
-
So we'll just start with the 30%
and then we can change it.
-
So we see that just
that change of 30% there
-
brings our fertilizer costs for the
hundred acres up to around 33,000.
-
And that alone is going to
lower this net income by 19%.
-
We're still making money,
-
but now it's less than it was before.
-
And then labor, everybody's
seen all the help wanted signs,
-
heard about the higher labor costs,
-
would just say like 25% or more?
-
>> Yeah.
-
>> So we put in the 25%.
-
And then this'll show is now
we're bringing that margin,
-
this is out of our-
after our out-of-pocket costs.
-
It was $0.58 on every dollar.
-
With those two changes,
it goes down to $0.47 on the dollar.
-
And our net income went
from 27,000 down to-
-
after tax take- taking 9000,
or before tax it went from
-
41,000 down to 29,000.
-
So this is something that you can quickly
kind of make those changes.
-
Other expenses,
-
probably like with just
inflation, 7 to 10%
-
if we're going a little conservative here,
-
so just do 7%, and then fixed cost,
-
we can go a little bit higher, maybe 10%.
-
And so you can see that
all of those changes bring us down,
-
our net income goes down by a third,
but we're still positive.
-
It was 41,000 before tax.
-
Now it's down to 26,000 before tax.
-
You'll notice that these changes
didn't affect it as much,
-
partly because
they're smaller percentages,
-
but also this- mainly this other one
-
is such a smaller number
to begin with compared to the others
-
that it's not going to drive things
as much as these two biggies.
-
But labor and energy are a huge part
of the expenses in alfalfa,
-
and both of those have experienced
really strong pressures.
-
So that would bring our
net income down by 36%.
-
But there's something else
going on in our state this year.
-
And what is that, Ryan?
-
>> Yeah, we're assuming we're going
to get five tons to the acre.
-
We hope that we will be able to,
but that's... so-
-
so what if- I mean,
-
it's just- we're going to assume that-
-
that we're not going to get our
full yield this year on alfalfa.
-
>> So we were getting five tons per acre.
-
So if we went down to like 60%
or about 30 tons per acre,
-
that would be like minus-
we'd lose like 40% of our yield.
-
So that's really going to
bring us negative.
-
We're still going to cover
our out-of-pocket expenses
-
because the 12% is positive here,
-
but we went from getting around $0.58
-
on the dollar
after out of pocket to $0.12,
-
and so that no longer is enough
to cover those fixed costs,
-
those 26,000 in fixed costs.
-
So now we're going to be
negative income here.
-
That's just- that's because
our yield went down,
-
but I've also heard
that prices of hay have been going up.
-
And so if we assume that
the yield might be lower,
-
but maybe the price of hay
is going to be a little bit higher,
-
maybe that nets out to
only going down by 25%.
-
And if so, then we come down to where
we're not too far from breaking even here,
-
we're negative by 1500.
-
But our margins, $0.29 on the dollar.
-
So this is..
-
how you can kind of just look at,
-
and why you might want
to look at this with a producer,
-
is if I know early in the season
-
that I'm going to be
having financial difficulty,
-
Ryan, when would you say is the best time
to go start talking to a banker?
-
>> The sooner the better.
[laughs]
-
As- as soon as you even get a hint
that things are not going as planned,
-
that's..
-
that's when the
communication should start.
-
>> So this can help you
instead of kind of wait-
-
knowing that you have
some of these things,
-
that prices are going up,
but our yield might be down, and..
-
then it can just kind of let
you start to put this together,
-
what that might look like, and
play out some different scenarios.
-
So here, assuming that you did- we do get
enough water that you can get your yield
-
and prices do go up a little bit,
maybe instead of being negative,
-
an optimistic one would be
that that's positive.
-
And so you can start
to look at the breadth of that.
-
But we've also seen energy prices
go up by 40% instead of 30%.
-
We've seen..
-
some of these other expenses.
-
You know, maybe they go up by 15%.
-
Whoops, wrong column.
-
And so it just starts to
allow you to do it.
-
I'm going to go back to.. my base.
-
So I'm going to assume..
-
So this is kind of what
we started out with, -25%,
-
30%, 25...
-
So when I look over here,
the other thing that I just-
-
I put here together is
-
to link these into some pie graphs.
-
And so these pie graphs
and this chart here
-
is based upon what I did with these
numbers up in my sensitivity analysis,
-
it just summarized them.
-
Here was what I had before,
is a- this is a percent of revenue.
-
Here's the percentage changes I did,
and then this is what I have afterwards.
-
And so up here, it's just
showing the expenses,
-
and I don't have the profit in it,
but of your expenses,
-
so the dollars being paid to expenses,
23% of that was going for energy
-
and with the change that we did now,
-
39% of those expenses become energy.
-
As a percent of net income,
-
it went from 23% up to 39%.
-
And then
-
you can see that profit here,
-
basically, this 37% of profit
had to go somewhere,
-
and it went into these higher fixed costs,
and it went into higher..
-
energy costs and higher labor.
-
But you can see that it just kind of
shrunk that profit down to very little.
-
And pie charts don't do well with negative
profit numbers or negative numbers,
-
so this is actually a negative
and it was a positive, but..
-
it just kind of is to illustrate.
-
The other thing that we
wanted to go over is
-
livestock.
-
Are there any questions on hay
before we leave or anything?
-
Any comments?
-
Then I'll bring up the livestock then.
-
So here's-
-
I did the same thing for the livestock,
or Ryan and I did.
-
We talked about it,
and we separated out..
-
the state range and federal range,
-
we don't- those numbers
won't change, but we-
-
they're so- a minor amount that
we just lumped them in with the other,
-
and then- but the-
-
we put again the alfalfa straw,
private meadows,
-
we saw that energy, those labor costs
was really driving the alfalfa.
-
So we put that in under the feed together,
-
and then..
-
the other expenses,
transportation we put under energy,
-
and then the non-fee grazing cost,
-
that's like the fencing
and different things.
-
So that's really more like labor.
-
So we added that up over here.
-
The same thing, put it into..
-
the sensitivity..
-
table,
-
and I put together those pie charts again.
-
So if we-
-
keeps wanting to run away from me.
-
So up here we show that we would-
-
livestock weren't doing
as well as the hay,
-
so we're showing that the profits
weren't as much to begin with
-
based on the base budget.
-
Margin was $0.17 on the dollar,
-
net income before taxes around 6600.
-
And so if we did assume like a 15% drop,
-
and then the same thing,
-
feed we did the 30% with the energy,
-
labor 25%,
-
energy also 30%,
-
10% for other,
10% for overhead.
-
It turned that-
-
so this one, with livestock,
with these changes,
-
even if we assume that
-
the revenue is not going to change,
it basically eliminated,
-
and you're not covering
your out-of-pocket expenses.
-
Little of- and then you're losing-
-
you went from a positive
6600 net income before taxes
-
to a -10,000.
-
And then if we assume that-
-
what's happening with cattle prices, Ryan?
-
>> It- it's slowly going down.
-
So...
-
>> So over here, and the reason I put this
all on one page is so over here,
-
we were assuming 550 pound steer cows,
500 pound heifer cows,
-
and the price of cattle was 1.- 175
-
for steers and then the 165 here.
-
And so if we
-
go down by 15%,
that's what it's looking like for us.
-
And then
-
again, I don't know if we-
-
I think it's based partly on our
range conditions and water and stuff,
-
but whether our calves
are going to be lighter or not,
-
whether you'll have
more death loss or not,
-
you know, those are additional things
that you could kind of take into account
-
when you think about changes in revenue.
-
But when I put this in,
-
the- you can see that this net income
-
or profit was a positive 8%,
and that goes down to a -19%.
-
So that net income-
-
but it starts to change.
-
And so we have a negative-
again, in a pie chart,
-
it doesn't do well.
-
That's why we did these just
percent of the expenses,
-
we can see that before,
feed was 47% of your expenses.
-
But with this change, it becomes 67%.
-
And so it just starts to eat
up all of that profit.. that..
-
Any comments here, Ryan, or..?
-
>> There was a comment in the chat box,
-
what factors are pushing
cattle prices down?
-
I think the..
-
the main thing is the..
-
you know, I showed that graph earlier,
the Consumer Price Index.
-
I think the cost of other goods
are so high inflation that,
-
you know, consumers are really-
-
when consumers have money in their pocket,
they buy- they buy beef.
-
And right now with the
economy and with inflation,
-
consumers are really tightening up,
-
and I think that's pushing
a lot of those- those prices down
-
on that B side.
-
But I think, no,
-
I think this captures that-
that the implications of those
-
rising feed costs on cattle is just..
-
pushing that, you know,
-
eating up that profitability,
just like you said.
-
>> So I think some other things
to think about for me is..
-
that if you see-
-
we didn't do it for dairy,
but if you see this negative,
-
this cost of feed really cutting into
-
the profit on the cattle beef side,
you also know that the cost of feed
-
is going to be really affecting the dairy
also, where some- a lot of our hay goes.
-
And so one thing that I would also
-
think about as I was
back here looking at the hay,
-
is..
-
I think another pressure that we have here
is not just from the lower yield,
-
maybe because of the water and stuff, but
-
are they going to get
paid for their h- feed?
-
So I think that sometimes
hay is something that,
-
as things start to tighten up in other areas,
it's hard to get paid for it.
-
We sell hay on a-
-
as Ryan said,
we sell a lot of hay on a handshake.
-
And so it's also just kind of-
-
are people going to, you know,
be selling hay that-
-
I don't know if I'm
going too far with that,
-
but I think hay is definitely
one of those things to really think about.
-
Will they get all the money collected
if there's financial pressure on their...
-
And that's a small amount that I think
sometimes getting pa-
-
not paid- get for like
one load for one farmer
-
can still be a significant thing
for that purse.
-
>> Ruby, there's another
question asking about-
-
are Texas producers
culling yet due to the drought?
-
I haven't seen any data
indicating that yet,
-
that those- those are-
-
anybody's starting to cull down south.
-
That's something
we are definitely watching.
-
I think that's something that,
you know, we've had these rains lately.
-
They haven't by no means
fixed anything, but..
-
that's one of the big questions
-
and key things that we're going to be
watching is- is to see what happens
-
with culling, both in Utah
and in our neighbors.
-
And especially as we watch-
-
That's what we were watching last year,
-
is that drought kind of subsided in Texas,
but we're watching it right now,
-
and if that drought creeps into Texas
and if they start culling,
-
then there'll be some-
some big market impacts.
-
We just haven't seen those quite yet.
-
You know, that drought, you know,
it's precarious, but it's not to the-
-
I don't think- I don't think anybody's
culling quite yet in Texas, but
-
we are definitely watching that.
-
RUBY: So- Yeah?
MATTHEW: I had a real quick question,
-
this map,
-
so I might have missed this,
being I logged on a little late, but
-
is there any prediction
of what percent of actual-
-
of our hay product we'll actually
produce this year due to drought?
-
How much are we gonna be down?
-
RYAN: In Utah?
-
>> Yeah, in Utah.
-
>> Ooooooh.
-
It's- it's still-
-
the one advantage is
-
we went into the fall with a little more
soil moisture than we did in 2020, 2021-
-
the fall of 2020 into 2021.
-
So we came into 2022 with
better soil moisture, right?
-
You talk to guys in Central Utah,
in Sanpete County,
-
they feel like they're in
a little better situation.
-
The problem is, we just
didn't get enough snowfall to..
-
that's one of the- how-
-
how are those reservoirs
going to be filled up, and how long?
-
So I think we're going to see..
-
at least, I think, a conservative 25% drop.
-
Very- and that's-
I think that's very conservative.
-
I think it's probably
going to be more than that,
-
but I think at least a 25%.
-
RUBY: So this was meant to
-
just give you a feel
for how you can start to bring-
-
sources for some of the information
that we're seeing as we go through,
-
and then how you can kind of
bring it down to the producer level
-
and also modify for individual situations.
-
And so we used some of the enterprise budgets
that we had here for the state of Utah,
-
but this can really be done
with anybody's information
-
if they just get it back down to
those few things, types of expenses.
-
So I will share those Excel files
that we used with Kerry,
-
and so he can share them.
-
They're really cluttered,
but I like having everything
-
kind of on one screen
so you can see everything. So...
-
KERRY: Is there a- [inaudible]-
-
Is there a central place
that these files are?
-
Maybe we can just send a URL out.
-
>> 'Kay.
-
>> If that's okay, instead of big file-
-
or instead of files,
they're not all that big, but...
-
>> Should we- so we can put them
on the APEC website, I think.
-
RYAN: Yeah, we can just upload them there.
-
>> And then the other thing- let's see...
-
Another good presentation that's
not on the APEC website, but
-
it was at the Urban and
Small Farms Conference.
-
And so I'm just going to share
my screen again, just before we go.
-
There we go.
-
So the Urban and Small Farms Conference
-
is here at the diverseag.org website
that many of you-
-
and many of you on here
participated in that and helped with it.
-
But if you go down to
-
Thursday afternoon in the
marketing/management segment,
-
Kynda Curtis went over
what's up with inflation and prices,
-
and we've got her PowerPoint
recording here, and then
-
I have the generic financial health
evaluation tool,
-
and my presentation here too.
-
And that version of
the file that's there has-
-
I did it with raspberry jam,
flowers, and vegetables.
-
And so rather than- I didn't have
the whole budgets here and stuff,
-
but I went through
and did the sensitivity analysis
-
and preloaded the
green numbers with those.
-
And so if you're interested more
in small farms and stuff,
-
you can use these ones too.
-
That's also a source for information.
-
And that's, again, the Urban
Small Farms Conference recordings
-
on diverseag.org.
-
And we'll put the rest of them
on our APEC Extension website.
